The Medfield school enrollment is projected to decline fairly dramatically over the next several years. The school enrollment should be declining, because the entering classes are much smaller than the graduating classes. Total school enrollment this year of 2,930 is projected to decline by about a quarter to 2,195 over the next seven years, by 2017-2018. This should ultimately translate into relief of pressure on the town budgets.
See the enrollment charts at https://medfield02052.blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/enrollment-charts.pdf
Medfield02052's Blog 
Pete, Wouldn’t there be an increase in enrollment if this 40B project were to be completed as contemplated by the developer? Maybe we shouldn’t so fast to think about smaller school populations?
LikeLike
Lee,
Yes, I would expect so, although I do not know by how much. The experts who were hired to review the Medfield State Hospital housing to determine the number of school children that would result all seemed to agree that in Medfield one will get school children at the rate of ==>
1.5 per single family detached house, and
0.15 – 0.20 per attached dwellings (apts or condos) if units only have 1-2 bedrooms
The current iteration of the West Street 40B, has half the units as 2 bedrooms, 1/4 as 1 bedrooms, and 1/4 as 3 bedrooms. So, extrapolating from what the experts said about the MSH housing, 3/4 of the units should not have too many school children. I do not know how the 3 bedroom units would figure.
Caution #1 = Lexington got more school children than were originally projected by similar experts at their 198 units of housing, which was built on the site of the Metroploitan State Hospital. See MIXED-INCOME HOUSING IN THE SUBURBS: LESSONS FROM MASSACHUSETTS http://www.chapa.org/pdf/MixedIncomeReport.pdf Interestingly, I now see that report also discusses the 96 unit development, Franklin Common, which was a 40B that was also built by Gatehouse, who is proposing the West Street 40B. Both of those developments had more 3 bedroom units than are proposed for West Street.
Caution #2 = Will people move to Medfield especially to get into the schools, so that the expert reports understate the potential? Certainly Lexington schools are comparable.
Caution #3 = Lexington was 28% affordable and Franklin Common 68% affordable, and I do not know the effect of West Street being proposed as 100% affordable.
Bob Maguire has ordered a report from his expert, Dr. Kennedy, on the expected number of school children from the West Street project, and that should give us good data.
LikeLike
Lee,
FYI, I mixed up the more recent Met State property development by AvalonBay with the AvalonBay one discussed in the document I noted above. The development discussed in the article I noted is not the one at the old Met State site.
LikeLike